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Improving your sales forecast: from gut feeling to a number you can plan on
The quarter is over and revenue has again come in lower than forecast. Two big deals slipped, a third turned out never to have really existed. For an IT or software company that wants to grow, that's a problem: you plan hiring and investments on that number, so every surprise costs money and credibility.
Why most sales forecasts are wrong
A forecast that's always off is rarely down to one salesperson or bad luck. Usually the problem is in the way deals move through the pipeline, and how often the forecast is updated.
Every salesperson uses the stages differently
What one sees as a sure deal, another calls a gamble.
The forecast isn't updated
Data from three weeks ago doesn't give a picture of today.
Old deals stay in
A deal that hasn't moved for three months still counts in the forecast.
Two ways to build your sales forecast
A weighted pipeline
Each stage in the pipeline gets a probability based on your own numbers. If on average three in ten deals in "proposal" were signed over the last twelve months, a deal in that stage counts for 30 percent of its value. Add that up for all deals and you have a weighted pipeline. That works well for planning further ahead, as long as the probabilities are based on your own history and not on the CRM's default percentages.
Commitdeals the salesperson is certain will sign in this period. They'd put their hand in the fire for it, and the customer has confirmed the decision and the timing.
Best casedeals that could sign in this period if everything goes right, but where there's still some uncertainty, such as a decision-maker who hasn't given the go-ahead yet.
Pipelineall other open deals, which will probably sign later.
Commit and best case
Many sales teams also work with forecast categories. Each salesperson classifies their own deals for the period:
The advantage: the discussion isn't about percentages, but about a clear question. Will this deal sign this month, yes or no? And the attention goes to this week's and next week's commits, because that's where your quarter is decided. You can also combine both methods: the weighted pipeline to look ahead, commit and best case for the current quarter.
What a reliable forecast needs
Clear conditions per stage
Each stage in the pipeline gets a condition you can check. For example: a deal only moves to "proposal" once the demo has been given, and only to "decision" once the proposal has been discussed with the management team. That way a stage means the same thing to everyone.
An updated forecast every Friday
A forecast is only as good as its last update. Agree that every salesperson updates their deals and forecast by the end of the day on Friday: stage, amount, expected date and category. The sales lead checks this every week. It's a discipline you have to guard constantly, because if you let it slide for a few weeks, your forecast will never be right again.
Weekly 1-to-1s on the closings
Use the weekly 1-to-1 with each salesperson to discuss the deals that need to sign this week and next. Ask concrete questions per deal:
A fixed clean-up rule
Deals that haven't moved for longer than an agreed period are removed from the pipeline or get a new date after a conversation with the customer. That feels harsh, but it makes the rest of your numbers credible.
How we tackle this with you
Step 1
Sales Analysis
In the Sales Analysis we put the forecast of recent quarters next to the actual result. We find out at which stage the surprises arise, with which salespeople and with which type of customer. Afterwards you know exactly where the deviation comes from.
Step 2
90-Day Sales Sprint
In the 90-Day Sales Sprint we build the stages, the conditions, the forecast categories and the weekly rhythm together, and we guide the 1-to-1s and the forecast review until the team runs it on its own. The CRM you already use is all you need.
How reliable is your forecast? Take the free sales scan
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Meet the founder
Frequently asked questions
How far off can a sales forecast be?
Many B2B companies aim for a deviation of less than 10 percent per quarter. More important than the exact number is knowing where the deviation comes from, so you can reduce it.
What's the difference between commit and best case in a sales forecast?
Commit are the deals the salesperson is certain will sign in this period, because the customer has confirmed the decision and the timing. Best case are deals that could sign if everything goes right, but where there's still some uncertainty. That way you see at a glance what's certain to come in and what still might.
Do we need a new CRM for a better forecast?
No. The problem is almost always in how deals move through the stages, not in the software. We work with what you already use, whether that's HubSpot, Salesforce, Pipedrive, Odoo or Teamleader.
How quickly will our forecast improve?
With fixed conditions per stage and a weekly review, you usually see a clear difference after one or two quarters.
Book a 45-minute call
Free and with no obligation. Pick a time that suits you, or leave a message and we'll get back to you within one working day.
Your call is with Yassine AkhayadFounder of Techsellr, 8+ years in B2B tech sales
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